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Research

Selected papers and technical notes on quantitative finance, machine learning, and market microstructure.

Fixing Prediction Market Liquidity: An Information-Geometric Approach

January 2026

Current liquidity-mining pays for activity, not information. I developed a new incentive mechanism that rewards information discovery by measuring the Fisher-Rao distance the market probability travels. Wash trading earns nothing, while sustained discovery earns large rewards.

Prediction MarketsMechanism DesignInformation GeometryLiquidity Mining

Solving the Illiquidity Problem: A New Perspective on Market Spreads

November 2025

Estimating liquidity for rarely traded stocks has always been a guessing game. This paper introduces a method that uses highly liquid "reference stocks" to correct spread estimates, offering a more accurate view of market costs.

LiquidityMarket MicrostructureEconometricsQuant Finance

Forget LLMs: A Formally Verified Neuro-Symbolic Architecture for Quantitative Finance

November 2025

I built a production system that combines LLMs with formal verification for derivatives pricing. FVLM achieves 100% verification success, zero runtime failures, and 323x better numeric precision than standard approaches—processing over 127,000 requests in production testing.

Quant FinanceNeuro-Symbolic SystemsFormal Verification